The end of the super cycle bull market in bonds?

Published: November 15, 2016

From record lows just after the Brexit vote – government bond yields have spiked higher. Ten year bond yields have risen from 1.36% in the US to 2.2%, from -0.19% in Germany to 0.31% and from 1.81% in Australia to 2.64% in four months. This in turn has led to sharp falls in high yield […]

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Donald Trump elected President of the US. Implications for investors and Australia.

Published: November 10, 2016

After a seemingly long and difficult campaign Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States with the Republican Party retaining control of the House, and the Senate, in Congress. Just as we saw with the Brexit vote, the combination of rising inequality, stagnant middle incomes and the disenchantment of white non-college educated males […]

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The US presidential election – Implications for investors

Published: September 22, 2016

Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for president makes the outcome of the 8 November US presidential election of greater significance than normal. Many would see Trump’s divisive and demeaning comments about certain groups of people, short fuse and erratic nature as rendering him as unqualified to be US president. This note looks at the […]

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Seven reasons for optimism on the Australian economy

Published: August 30, 2016

Ever since the mining boom ended several years ago it seems a sense of gloom has pervaded debate regarding Australia. There is constant talk of recession whether we don’t do something (like control the budget) or even if we do nothing (with reports titled “Australian Recession 2016 – Why it’s unavoidable and the quickest way […]

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The constrained medium term return outlook

Published: August 17, 2016

While the high inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s was bad for investment returns at the time, it left a legacy of very high investment yields which helped set the scene for high investment returns through the 1980s and 1990s. Back in the early 1980s the RBA's "cash rate" was averaging around 14%, 3 […]

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